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In today’s episode:

• ✍️ Are We Entering a Bear Market?

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TOP STORY

Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Will the Fed’s Next Move Spark a Rally or a Drop?

The crypto market is having a case of the Monday (or, well, Tuesday) blues, with Dogecoin (DOGE) and XRP leading the downturn, both dropping over 3% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the broader market isn’t looking much better—the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) slipped 2% as traders hit the pause button ahead of Wednesday’s big event: the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates.

The Fed Has the Market in a Chokehold

All eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where Jerome Powell will either play nice or keep his hawkish talons out. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, but it’s not the decision itself that’s got traders biting their nails—it’s Powell’s tone.

• If he hints at rate cuts coming soon, Bitcoin (BTC) could pump, dragging altcoins along for the ride.

• If he plays tough and signals a longer wait for easing, expect more pain for risk assets, including crypto.

According to QCP Capital, “A rate cut this Wednesday remains highly unlikely as the U.S. pivots away from fiscal dominance, where government spending fueled growth, toward [President Donald] Trump’s push for deficit reduction.” Translation: don’t hold your breath for lower rates, but any dovish signal could still send markets flying.

Fear, Greed, and a Whole Lot of Uncertainty

Right now, crypto investors are stuck in a twilight zone of uncertainty. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is sitting at a concerning 25—deep in extreme fear territory. The cause? A mix of inflation worries, trade wars, and global tensions have traders hesitating to make any big moves.

Agne Linge of WeFi pointed out that the traditional markets aren’t looking much better. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq just logged their fourth straight week of losses, and the Dow Jones dropped 3.1%—its worst week in two years. If that downward pressure continues, it could spell trouble for Bitcoin, which has been holding its breath between $82,000 and $85,000.

BTC: Stuck in the Middle, But for How Long?

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, says Bitcoin is at a crossroads—either climbing to $90,000 or dipping toward $75,000, depending on what the Fed throws at it. “It’s a classic post-rally consolidation phase that is healthy but also a test of whether the recent momentum has real staying power,” Lee said.

TL;DR: If the Fed plays it safe, Bitcoin might just keep ranging. But if Powell drops any unexpected bombshells, expect fireworks—whether that’s a moonshot or a freefall is still TBD.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.