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In today’s episode:

• ✍️ Are We Entering a Bear Market?

TOP STORY

Are We Entering a Bear Market? Or Is This Just a Reset?

The markets are in turmoil, and the question on everyone’s mind is: Are we in a bear market, or is this just a brutal pullback before another leg up?

Depending on how you look at the data, both arguments can be made. Sentiment is shaken, price action is weak, and macro conditions are messy.

But at the same time, liquidity trends are turning positive, and historical patterns suggest this could be a temporary reset rather than the start of a prolonged downtrend.

So, where do we actually stand? And more importantly—how should you position yourself?

Macro Conditions: The Real Driver of This Market

Right now, crypto is not moving based on industry fundamentals. If it were, we’d be at all-time highs. The US Bitcoin Reserve, regulatory clarity from the SEC, and banks getting the green light for crypto activity should have sent prices soaring. But instead, we’re stuck in the mud.

The reason? The broader economic landscape is in control.

A few months ago, we warned about a 30% pullback—not because of anything wrong with crypto, but because the macro environment was flashing warning signs. And that’s exactly what happened.

Here’s what we’re watching now:

• Global liquidity is rebounding. Money supply (M2) has bottomed and is climbing again, which historically fuels risk assets like crypto.

• The dollar is falling. A weaker dollar creates better conditions for global investments and risk-on assets.

• Interest rates are still high but trending down. The 10-year treasury yield has dropped from 4.8% to below 4.2%. Lower rates mean easier money, which benefits crypto and tech.

• Inflation is cooling. CPI and Core CPI have come in lower than expected, signaling that the Federal Reserve may soon have room to cut rates.

Trump’s Economic Strategy: A Controlled Slowdown?

One of the biggest factors in play right now is the Trump administration’s handling of the economy. With $9.2 trillion in US debt coming due in 2025—70% of which needs to be refinanced in the first half of the year—the government needs interest rates to come down.

The problem? The Federal Reserve can’t lower rates unless the economy weakens.

So, Trump appears to be engineering a “growth scare” to push rates lower. How?

1. Mass layoffs in the government – Tens of thousands of federal employees are getting cut, increasing unemployment.

2. Trade war threats – Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China create economic uncertainty, cooling inflation.

3. Geopolitical chaos – Market volatility spikes when global conflicts and political feuds dominate the headlines.

Whether this is a calculated move or just political turbulence, the end goal is clear: slow the economy enough to lower interest rates—without triggering a full-blown recession.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Predicting the short-term is tough, especially when chaos is the intended strategy. But looking at the big picture, this downturn seems more like a cycle reset than the start of a true bear market.

• Liquidity is improving.

• The dollar is weakening.

• Inflation is cooling.

• Interest rates are dropping.

These are all ingredients for another leg up once the dust settles. In fact, this setup feels eerily similar to 2017, when Trump’s first term kicked off a major rally in both crypto and stocks.

How to Position Your Portfolio

The key question: Are you an investor or a trader?

• If you’re an investor, this pullback is a gift. The long-term adoption of crypto is not changing, and high-quality assets will recover.

• If you’re a trader, trying to time every move in this environment is risky. Selling after a 30% drop is rarely a winning strategy.

Instead of panicking, focus on positioning smartly:

🔹 Safer plays: Bitcoin (especially if it dips below $70k) and the NASDAQ (~$18k). These assets tend to recover first when sentiment shifts.

🔹 Medium-risk buys: Stocks like Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and Tesla (TSLA). All three got hit hard but have strong long-term potential.

🔹 Higher-risk plays: Select altcoins like Solana (SOL), Celestia (TIA), and MakerDAO (MKR). These could bounce back hard once the market turns, but timing is key.

What to avoid?

• Meme coins and hype-driven tokens—they struggle in uncertain macro conditions.

• Over-leverage—volatility will remain high, and getting liquidated is never fun.

Final Thoughts

This isn’t the first time crypto has faced uncertainty, and it won’t be the last. The key is to zoom out and recognize that short-term turbulence often creates the best long-term opportunities.

Nothing about crypto’s fundamental growth has changed. Regulation is improving, institutional adoption is rising, and global liquidity is starting to flow back into risk assets.

If you can stomach the volatility, the second half of 2025 could be explosive.

Now is the time to stay focused, make strategic moves, and get ready for the next leg up.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.